Presidential Illegitimacy

The US has never had a legitimately-elected president, because legitimacy has only been possible in the last nine elections, and none of those presidents has received majority support from among the voting-age population (VAP). And as I’ve said before, the percentage of registered voters (RV) is not a valid indicator of support, because not voting is the same as voting “none of the above” (NOTA).

The first possible legitimate presidential election was 1972 (which Nixon “won” with 33.51% VAP), because the 26th amendment guaranteed the right of 18-year-olds to vote in 1971. If you’re old enough to fight and die for your country, then you’re old enough to have a say in how it is governed, and anyone who disagrees with that had better have a powerful argument.

If you reject the above (let me get some popcorn before you begin that argument), then the first possible legitimate presidential election must have been 1924 (which Coolidge “won”; % VAP unknown, but at 54.04% RV it couldn’t have been a majority), because it was the first where women from every state were able to participate fully (the 19th amendment, which guaranteed the right of women to vote, was ratified in time for the 1920 general election, but not the primaries, thus that election was not fully legitimate).

If you reject the above (I’ll get more popcorn), then the first possible legitimate presidential election must have been 1872 (which Grant “won”; % VAP unknown, but at 55.58% RV, again, it couldn’t have been a majority), because it was the first where (male) blacks were (technically) guaranteed the right to vote, by the 15th amendment (ratified 1870). I say “technically” because they were still disenfranchised through all manner of intimidation, especially in the south.

If you reject all the above, then you’re probably a racist, misogynist… monarchist… or something.

Incidentally, here are the VAP percentages for all nine post-26th-amendment presidential elections:

1972 - Nixon   - 33.51%
1976 - Carter  - 26.81%
1980 - Reagan  - 26.67%
1984 - Reagan  - 31.21%
1988 - Bush I  - 26.77%
1992 - Clinton - 23.76%
1996 - Clinton - 24.12%
2000 - Bush II - 24.11%
2004 - Bush II - 28.49%

So there you have it, the closest we’ve had to a legitimate presidency is Nixon’s second term, to which he was elected by barely 1/3 of the electorate. I’ll leave it to the reader to decide which part of that sentence is more depressing.

More fun with numbers:

Interest in the upcoming election appears high, so participation will presumably be relatively high as well. But according to the source I’m using, the highest VAP turnout on record was 63.1% in 1960, when Kennedy beat Nixon by less than 113,000 votes (the source doesn’t have turnout records before then). That election was at least as hot as this one. Also, the highest winning RV percentage since 1824 (when the popular vote data begins), was 61.05% RV in 1964 (Johnson).

Assuming a generous (but unlikely) two-thirds VAP registration and turnout (using the 2004 VAP count, since I don’t have the current figure), and assuming the winner of the upcoming election takes two-thirds of the RV (also unlikely), then he would boast the support of over 44% of the electorate — better than Nixon, and probably the best ever, but still illegitimate.

If You Run Them, We Will Vote

A lack of participation in the democratic process is an implicit “No” vote for all the available choices. If there were any choices that the non-participants felt they could support, they would participate.

Looking at the 2004 U.S. presidential election, 56.2% of the voting age population participated. Never mind the percentage of “registered voters,” that is a stupid figure which only proves the point: if the choices elicited enthusiasm, an overwhelming majority of the VAP would not only register, but would actually show up and vote. Bush received 50.73% of that 56.2%, Kerry received 48.27% of it.

In other words: 71.49% of the VAP effectively voted “No” for Bush; 72.87% did the same for Kerry.

These turnout figures are typical. At best, about one third of the electorate makes the decisions in American politics. Any lower and I would be tempted to throw around pejoratives like “oligarchy.” But it would be an oligarchy by consent (if that makes any sense), which somehow makes it sound even worse. Turnouts for state and local elections run from slightly better to much worse.

What should this tell us? That something is fundamentally wrong. It’s not that “the system” is flawed; that is just a convenient scapegoat for people who lose elections. It’s not that the people aren’t politically educated; they don’t need to be educated (although ideally they would be), they just need to be motivated.

There is a lot of hype for Obama this time around, but I am not convinced that it is genuine. I don’t foresee an overwhelming turnout. I hope that I am wrong. Regardless of who wins, a 100% turnout should be the goal, more so than victory for any particular candidate. If the victor cannot induce a majority of the VAP to vote for him, then he did not “win” anything. It is possible to win and still be a loser.

Give people something to vote for, and they will vote. If they are not voting, then the choices suck. It is just that simple.

(Figures taken from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.)